By: Lucas Kochevar
The unthinkable happened this week as Julio Jones won't be finishing his career in a Falcons uniform. As a Falcons fan through and through, this was something that I refused to believe until it happened. The Falcons were looking for ways to squeeze under the cap and shopping Julio was a possibility. It never made sense to trade the 10-year veteran as the offense would go from elite to okay. Trading Julio only made sense for money purposes. Then, he made the quote to Shannon Sharpe regarding his future in Atlanta, "I'm outta there," The flurry of reports made the rounds from Adam Schefter to Ian Rapoport. Apparently, Jones made the request to Atlanta months ago. It made sense that him requesting the trade was the driving force to start the trade talks with other teams. Personally, this one hurt. It really sucked to hear him basically call Atlanta some losers, although he didn't directly say that. Jones has been the prime example of how any superstar should act throughout his career. Atlanta's all-time leading receiver will return to Mercedes-Benz Stadium one day to become apart of the Falcons Ring of Honor, guaranteed. Lets take a look at the deal and how it affects both teams involved. The Falcons ended up trading Jones to the Tennessee Titans for what presumably was their best offer. Atlanta received a 2022 2nd round pick, 2023 4th rounder for Julio and a 2023 6th rounder. The biggest part of the deal for Atlanta is the fact that the Titans take on Jones' salary of $15.3M and the remaining years. This always seemed like the most likely compensation for a WR that just turned 32, missed seven games in 2020, and earns that much money. The market was strong, but majority of the teams never seemed serious about taking on the contract. Luckily for the Falcons, Tennessee was willing and able after a Ryan Tannehill restructure. Atlanta Outlook The Falcons behind the scenes are able to clear up enough cap space to finally sign their rookie class. They also will have a chance to have some leftover cash with approximately $8M. This gives them the ability to sign a veteran edge rusher or cornerback. They aren't out of the woods yet, as they owe a ton of money to around five players for next year. Atlanta's on-the-field product will take a hit on the offensive side of the ball, but they are far from a bad unit. The Falcons' receiver group was pretty solid without Jones last year and they bring in stud rookie TE Kyle Pitts. They are far from bad with Calvin Ridley, Pitts, Hayden Hurst, and Russell Gage. Ridley slides into the spotlight at WR1 and should put up great numbers. Last season, he put up over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. Gage was a great WR3, but he'll have to step up into that WR2 spot. Arthur Smith loves using two TE sets so Pitts and Hurst should be on the field together for plenty of snaps during passing downs. Pitts could even bump to the outside, if needed. Atlanta will be fine without Julio. It would have been a great unit with Jones, but they are still a talented core without him. Tennessee Outlook The Titans receive a boost to their team with the addition of Jones. The Titans form a terrifying trio of Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Jones. With emerging star A.J. Brown, Jones should get plenty of targets and opportunities to run free. Something that I think is being overlooked is the departure of Arthur Smith, who is ironically the Falcons HC. The Titans promoted TE coach Todd Downing to the new spot as OC. Downing has experience as an OC back from 2017 when he was promoted to OC for the Raiders. The staff got fired after that season so he never really got to establish himself, but in his first full-time gig his offense ranked 18th in total offense and 23rd in scoring. That Raiders team wasn't as good as this Titans team, but changing teams doesn't work for every OC. That is my biggest concern for Tennessee. I think they can figure it out, but it wouldn't be surprising if they started slower than anticipated. I also don't think this move suddenly bumps the Titans to a Super Bowl Contender. Their defense isn't that improved from last year and they have a hole at RT to figure out. The Titans have a much better shot at winning the AFC South, but I don't think their ceiling is that much higher. I am excited to see what this offense will look on the field in 2021. You can listen to more thoughts on Julio here -> anchor.fm/lkandb
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By: Lucas Kochevar
The free agent market for WR is actually pretty deep this year with big names like Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, and Juju Smith-Schuster. Allen Robinson is one of the most intriguing guys in this FA class. He has put up top receiver numbers on the Bears with QB play that screams inconsistency. Robinson put up the second best season of his career this past year and proved to be dominant in certain games.
Allen Robinson suffered a torn ACL in 2017, but you would never notice that because of how he runs routes. He stops with no issues on routes that require quick stops. He displays double moves on inside routes that give him the separation he needs to make strong catches over the middle. In zones he is able to find the sweet spots to get the ball, but against man coverage is where you get to see his best trait, his jump ball skills. Robinson excels in these situations. Bears QBs the past year often would throw the ball at Robinson, expecting a miracle and he would deliver. They refused to throw him open and forced him to go up and take the ball away from the defender. Robinson does a good job at high pointing the ball as he normally extends right over the defender or defenders. There is a touchdown catch he makes against the Colts near the end of the game that really shows off this skill as he reaches over the player, somehow makes the grab, and gets both feet down. According to PFF, since 2017 Allen Robinson has the 2nd lowest drop rate in the NFL at 2.2% right behind Larry Fitzgerald. Robinson also has the most contested catches since 2018 with 65. These two stats describe what type of guy he is at his best. The parts in his game that aren't very good is is YAC, yards after catch. It was noticeable that once he catches the ball, he does not get much further. This might be where the ACL injury has taken its toll on his body. He doesn't show killer speed as his game is much more technically sound. He normally catches the ball and falls, sometimes due to where the ball is thrown and sometimes it is due to him just accepting his fate. This isn't a horrible a trait, but in a league that is more explosive than ever before this is something to note when evaluating his value. Sportrac.com has his market value at somewhere around 4/yrs and $80 million. There is definitely no guarantee that he will get this, but you have to imagine at 27, this will be his last big shot at a large payday. He seems like a standup guy so it is hard to evaluate whether his priority is getting paid or winning. If he wants to get paid, the obvious options are both New York teams as they have big needs at WR and they would likely have to overpay in order to get a big name like Robinson. If winning is more important, then I would suggest teams like Indianapolis or Baltimore. These two teams have the need at WR. Indy is losing T.Y. Hilton to free agency, likely, and Baltimore needs a big catch WR on the opposite side of speedster Marquise Brown to help Lamar Jackson. The best of both worlds would be New England. The Patriots certainly have a hole at WR and they have for a couple of years, outside of Julian Edelman. New England has a long established record of missing in the draft and trades, but free agency could provide NE their next big playmaker. The Pats history of winning is well-known and they could find themselves competing again with a strong offseason. They don't have the QB position fully figure out yet, but whoever they end up rolling with could greatly benefit from having Robinson. The Pats will be one of the teams with the most cap space. New England and Robinson seem like the best match for each other and this is where I would project him with that price tag of around 4/yrs. and $75-$80 million. Quickly, another scenario would be the Bears franchise tagging Robinson in hopes or working out something or trading him to one of the teams listed above. Very excited to see where the Bears pass catcher ends up this offseason. By: Lucas Kochevar
Another Chargers player is in the spotlight on this page and this time it is RB Melvin Gordon. Gordon is the topic of today as he has been holding out for a new contract. Gordon has been vocal about wanting to get paid more before his rookie deal is up. The issue that Gordon has is that he has a history of injuries and the RB position has gotten very replaceable i.e Leveon Bell/James Conner in Pitt. The Chargers are having pause on a deal that would keep Gordon in LA for the future. I do not blame them, however I would pay the man. Gordon has been one of the best backs in football since entering the league. The two-time pro bowler has 3,628 yards rushing and 28 touchdowns in his four year career. He has shown in multiple ways that he thrives in stretch plays off tackle. Once he gets to the outside he can be a threat to OLB and secondary players. Gordon can run in between the tackles too even if it isn't his strength. He has a very balanced attack running the ball. The second reason they should sign him is that he provides another element in the passing game. He has a career number of 1,577 yards including a career-high 490 last season in just 12 games. His versatility is huge in the Chargers offense too. The Chargers feature a lot of short/dump off passes to the RB. They leave it up to their backs to make plays once Phillip Rivers swings it out to them. Rivers only has a number of years left as he is 37 and surrounding him with as much talent as possible should be their strategy to push for a Super Bowl. The only risk they have is if he gets hurt, but that is just a risk you have to take because any player can get hurt any time. Best of luck to Gordon as he looks for his deal. By Lucas Kochevar
The Chargers have the most underappreciated team in the league, partly due to a move from San Diego to LA, and they have the most underappreciated WR in the league. Keenan Allen went under the radar and was drafted in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft. Standing at 6'2 and 211 lbs, Allen has carved himself a very nice career. Allen has had a bumpy career but that is mostly due to an ACL injury he had a couple years ago. Now that he is back and better than ever, Allen is here to stay and be in the conversation for top 5 receivers. Allen displays very talented route running for a physical receiver. Allen displays very foot work when running routes in the 10-20 yard area. He makes sure to create space between him and the defender. He finds a way to create this space with his release at the line of scrimmage. He shows multiple examples against talented corners where he either shakes the receiver or blows by him. Allen finds a way to get to a spot where Rivers can squeeze the ball in. Allen has developed over his time in the NFL with his hands. Keenan came into the league has a raw talent from Cal. He came in and really found a role as a starter after an injury to Malcom Floyd. Allen has really become a guy where you can throw it up and he'll find the ball. Allen has become a guy to watch and a role model for how to overcome adversities such as injuries and coming in behind other talents. He looks to improve upon his season where he had 97 catches with 1,196 yards and 6 TDs. Watch out for Keenan Allen. By: Lucas Kochevar
The Raptors sit atop the East as they have had a tremendous year with DeMar DeRozan playing at a superstar level alongside his running mate Kyle Lowry. They also have players that fill out the starting lineup, such as Serge Ibaka and his shot blocking ability and Jonas Valanciunas and his scoring down in the post. The bench has also done their job with young role players like Fred Van Fleet and Jakob Poetl. A big boost to their bench has been C.J. Miles. His 3 and D style of play has really added a true threat to their bench. The question, however, is whether or not they can perform in the playoffs? History has not been kind to the Raptors in the playoffs. They have clinched the playoffs the last three years, but these were the results:
The Raptors look like a changed team compared to the last couple of Raptors teams. The East is also much more favorable with a Celtics team that has struggled as of late and a Cavaliers team that is still trying to click after stripping their roster down. The Raptors have all the pieces put together and they remind me of the 2015 Hawks. They are fun to watch and are very deep with their roster. The problem is that they still have to go through LeBron, like the 2015 Hawks. These Raptors are loaded and they should finish out the season strong, but be careful in trusting them. Toronto's season will be very disappointing if it ends in anything less than a Conference Finals berth. These Raptors are contenders in the East, but they certainly have no chance in them contending in a best-of-7 playoff series against the Warriors, Rockets, or even the Spurs. |
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