Has Patrick Mahomes Regressed?

(Image via Brynn Anderson/AP Photo)

​By: Lucas Kochevar

It’s a truly bizarre question and requires a lot of context, but it feels like it has to be asked, has Patrick Mahomes regressed? The term regression often gets attributed to disappointment and guys that end up looking like a shell of themselves. People seemingly forget that regression truly means he just doesn’t look as good as he has. That is the statement attributed to Mahomes here. 

It doesn’t mean that Mahomes is the fourteenth best quarterback in the league. It means that Mahomes has gone from Superman on the field to a guy that plays it too safe. It makes sense that an offense that loses Tyreek Hill and has offensive coordinator turnover isn’t the same. The downtick in yards and touchdowns over the last three years is concerning. 

He dropped nearly 1,000 yards from 2022 to 2023 and his touchdowns dropped from 41 to 27. His 2023 and 2024 seasons are very similar as well. The receiver room has seen a lot of turnover over the years, but a big key to the numbers and offense slowing down is Travis Kelce slowing down. His age has been showing over the past couple of seasons and it’s a brutal truth Chiefs fans have to face.

The silver lining is the Chiefs can look at two young guys that could boost the offense vertically in the way that Tyreek Hill did years ago. Rashee Rice went down with an injury last year, but was well on his way to a Pro Bowl caliber season. Xavier Worthy ended up finding the endzone more as the season went on and the biggest flash you can see to his potential is his touchdown catch in garbage time of the Super Bowl. 

The Chiefs can win games with Mahomes playing a slower brand of football. They just went 15-1 and lost in the Super Bowl to one of the best teams of all-time. Yet, there feels like an untapped potential the Chiefs aren’t hitting when they don’t maximize Mahomes’ arm and the talent we’ve all seen over the years. It’s like we’ve eaten the Filet Mignon and now we’re just settling for some skirt steak because in the end, it’s still steak.