 Oregon looks to keep the explosives going as they travel to Northwestern to open up conference play (Image via Lydia Ely/AP Photo)
By: Lucas Kochevar College football betting takes no prisoners as offenses figured out they can move down the field and score this week. Games like Baylor-SMU, Illinois-Duke and Virginia-North Carolina State showed us that anyone, any week can score over 30 points in a game. Week three of college football shows us a number of games that’ll teach us a lot for certain teams. Georgia and Gunner Stockton will be tested in their first road SEC game. Notre Dame looks to bounce back with a showdown against Texas A&M. USF looks to buff its group of five resume with another win against a highly ranked opponent in Miami. For now, there are picks that have to be made and here’s three helpful picks for week three. Oregon -28 @ Northwestern In case you missed last week's Oregon vs Oklahoma State game, I’ll recap it with a quote from “Stand By Me”: “You guys want to see a dead body?” It was ugly last week as Oregon signed and sealed Mike Gundy’s pink slip with a 69-3 win. The Ducks now enter Big 10 conference play in Chicago as they take on the journalism school known as Northwestern. The question here isn’t whether Oregon will win or not, it’s by how much. The noon spot and traveling halfway across the country plays against the Ducks but four touchdowns feels like too small a gap for how good Oregon has looked. Texas Tech -24 vs Oregon State The ‘Fade Oregon State’ strategy is 2-0 on the year and feels too good to be true this week as the Beavers travel to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech. Head coach Joey McGuire has quietly built a strong Big 12 contender with the backing of some big time boosters that make the Red Raiders one of the better teams in the conference. Texas Tech has scored over 60 points in their first two games with blowout wins over Akron and Arkansas Pine-Bluff. This would be a good spot for a disappointing performance from the Red Raiders, but Oregon State is so bad that they should still cover in this spot. Texas A&M @ Notre Dame u49.5 These two teams don’t scream track race as Mike Elko and the Aggies are built more for grinding out wins. On top of that, Marcel Reed’s status has been covered up throughout the week and if there’s any doubt he can play to his max, Texas A&M’s offense will be dragging down the field. On the other side, Notre Dame is still in ‘break him in’ mode with their new quarterback CJ Carr. With quarterbacks that aren’t playing at their max potential, the offenses don’t seem explosive enough to run up for the total Vegas is giving here. Notre Dame won in a gross, low-scoring affair last year and the air feels the same for this matchup in South Bend.
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 Fresno State took care of business against Georgia Southern and looks to keep the momentum going against Oregon State this week (Image via Craig Kohlruss/Fresno Bee)
By: Lucas Kochevar My eyes are bleeding from all the football I’ve consumed this weekend. The appointment viewing of Arch being horrible, Alabama losing its fear factor and LSU making a statement in Clemson all created a week full of content for writers around the country. There are even a few underlying headlines that people aren’t talking about like Tulane being the best Group of Five team, the emergence of a couple freshman quarterbacks and a couple of big time Big 12 performances. Week two there are more guys that look to make their name and winners that need to be picked. With a 2-1 record last week, there’s a hunger for more winners on LK Sports Talk. It’s a lot more lackluster for this week’s slate, but still some juicy lines out there. Illinois @ Duke u49.5 The under was the biggest winner of week one in college football as offenses struggled to get going. There could be an increase in offensive production this week, but Durham doesn’t feel like the location for it. Brett Bielema and Illinois poured it on against Western Illinois last week as they won 52-3, but they didn’t cover or hit the over. Duke’s score looks like a dominant win over Elon, but diving into it shows some late scores, 21 in the fourth quarter, helped them hit their over. The Blue Devils aren’t quite a finished product and facing a tough Illinois team doesn’t sound like the time for an offensive breakout game. This feels more like a business trip for Illinois as they’ll likely play a Big 10 style of football in a low-scoring win. Fresno State +3 @ Oregon State It’s too early to follow any major trends in the college football world, but there’s something about how Oregon State played Saturday that screams at me. They faced off against Cal and their five-star freshman quarterback and took a beating. As a one-point favorite at home with an experienced transfer quarterback, they struggled to get anything going and lost. Oregon State might be in for a long year if this is the type of football they’re playing for a whole season. Meanwhile, Fresno State took care of Georgia Southern in a blowout win. They even competed with Kansas during week zero. Fading Oregon State could be a fruitful strategy this season and this is a great spot to start following that trend. Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech u47.5 It was a lucky number to get this one at 47.5 because it’s dropped two points since Wednesday because Vegas is realizing they were too generous here. The Hokies played in a big game against South Carolina last week as they lost, but the concerning part was the lack of offense from Brent Pry’s team. Kyron Drones was supposed to grow into his starting role at quarterback to lead the Hokies offense as a threatening unit, but his sporadic play doesn’t help their cause. Going up against another SEC defense won’t be an easy task. Vanderbilt’s offense also isn’t a high-flying offense that’ll run up and down the field. They love to run and teams that run the ball win games by grinding their opponents. That kind of game seems to be a likely outcome in Blacksburg on Saturday.  LaNorris Sellers looks to capitalize on his success from the 2024 season (Image via Jeremy Reper/Imagn-Images)
By: Lucas Kochevar The college football season started last week with a couple games kicking off for week zero, namely Kansas State and Iowa State, where the Cyclones won as an outright dog at +3. It was a fun appetizer, but now it’s time for the real deal week one with Top 25 matchup galore, including Texas at Ohio State. Those games are all fun, but it’s time to try and find some winners in the weeds. Indiana -23.5 vs Old Dominion If you’re a blue blood football school getting ready to face off against Indiana, you should be prepared. If you’re a group of five program getting ready to face off against Indiana, you should run. Indiana was a covering machine last season as a favorite where they were 7-1 when covering. The thought might be that coming off a big time season and playoff appearance that their guard will be down and Old Dominion could keep it close, but it’s wishful thinking. Head coach Curt Cignetti normally gets up for games like this where they just go pedal to the metal. With big time transfer Fernando Mendoza coming in, I think the Hoosiers will look to make noise offensively and stomp Old Dominion. Coastal Carolina @ Virginia u58 Picking totals is a horrifying feeling because it’s week one and there is no information to go on other than gut feelings. This is that kind of play because there is zero trust in what head coach Tony Elliot is cooking up with the Cavaliers offense and Coastal Carolina hasn’t been a reliable offense to predict since Grayson McCall was the quarterback. Coastal Carolina was shockingly good at hitting the over last season, but there is always skepticism when the group of five offense has to play the power four defense. The Cavaliers were 3-7 in hitting the over last season. These teams did play last season and they did hit the over, with ease, but I don’t trust it to hit two seasons in a row. South Carolina -7.5 vs Virginia Tech (Neutral Site) The hype around South Carolina is major with the team’s hot end to the 2024 season and emergence of LaNorris Sellers. They come into this season with hopes to repeat that success and week one versus Virginia Tech feels like a great place to start. The fascinating part about this matchup is Shane Beamer going against his dad’s old team and that adds a little more to the emotion of how much Beamer wants to win this game. On top of that, Sellers leading the offense and D.J. Stewart leading Virginia Tech spinning.  (Image via Phinsider.com)
By: Lucas Kochevar The Miami Dolphins are one of the more confusing teams in the league in terms of trajectory. The Dolphins are coming off a disappointing season after they missed the playoffs for the first time under wunderkid coach Mike McDaniel. The young coach came to the Dolphins to help Tua Tagovailoa rise to his billing as a top pick. McDaniel elevated Tagovailoa's play and helped him get paid, but now they’re facing a weird path forward to being contenders. To start the offseason, the Dolphins had to navigate one of the weirder trade requests of all-time. Star receiver Tyreek Hill has long been a loud participant on social media and didn’t help his case when he tweeted out numerous odd things from “It’s time for me to go coach” to peace sign emojis. The Dolphins GM and Hill have refuted any word about an official trade request, but it’s in the air. Now that training camp has opened, the media has been able to ask the guys about these offseason shenanigans and Tagovailoa’s take on the matter seems to be the most mature move he’s made as a starter. Essentially, Tagovailoa stated his honest opinion that trust has to be regained with the star and held him to a standard that he deems is the “Dolphins’ standard.” Outside of dealing with Hill, the Dolphins have made odd moves. The offensive line has long been the issue for Miami and they thought they solved it when they signed OT Terron Armstead. Instead, he was banged up throughout his deal and retired this past offseason. To fill his hole and potentially clean up this offensive line, they decided to sign James Daniels, coming off an achilles injury, and Larry Borom, a swing tackle. Other odd moves they made include trading away pro bowler Jonnu Smith for Minkah Fitzpatrick and then trading for then-retired tight end Darren Waller. Fitzpatrick returns to Miami in hopes to return to form as he’s regressed over the years. Waller is another odd move as he’s been an odd cat and hurt since he’s been traded from the Raiders a couple seasons ago. He hopes to add to the Dolphins offense alongside Hill and Jaylen Waddle. All these moves don’t inspire a ton of confidence, especially in a conference that is just loaded with quality teams and guys I could see jumping the Dolphins. If Cam Ward comes out strong, I think the Titans can jump them. If Trevor Lawrence bounces back and Travis Hunter pops out, I can see the Jags jumping them. If Mike Vrabel can elevate his talent and Maye makes a step, I can see the Pats jumping them. These are just a couple quick teams I can envision as better squads than Miami. The Dolphins are likely under pressure in their own building more than the national sense, but pressure is pressure regardless. The Dolphins will be an intriguing team to watch over the year.  (Image via Ron Chenoy/Imagn Images)
By: Lucas Kochevar *UPDATE* A very interesting development to the story in Boulder as Deion Sanders and his medical team announced today that Sanders is recovering from bladder cancer. I noted it in the story below that Sanders has been absent, but now it's good news that he is coming back to the sidelines. For those that aren't fans of Sanders, you have to at least appreciate that he's drawing attention to an important issue like this. Let's see how it turns out this season for Sanders and co. *** There’s no doubt that Deion Sanders and Colorado have dominated the news cycle in college football over the past two years. It’s been an amount of coverage that rivals LeBron’s decision in 2011 and anything Tom Brady did while he was on the Patriots. A big part of that was the duo of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, but now the Buffaloes are heading into uncharted territory. Sanders has stepped away from the team due to a health issue, which is something out of his control. It feels weird to speak on the team with him gone for the time being, but the team has to move forward no matter what. They have multiple questions they’ll have to answer over the course of the season. The biggest question always comes back to who is lining up behind center? Colorado has two intriguing options with incoming transfer Kaidon Salter from Liberty and big-time recruit Juju Lewis from Carrollton, Ga. Salter has had some mixed results as he stood out in 2023, but struggled to find his footing in 2024, but he still has the dual threat capabilities. Lewis comes in as the young gun that holds a more traditional passer. He never totaled over 100 yards rushing throughout his time at Carrollton. Salter feels like the leader in the clubhouse but you never know until the fall. The biggest test Sanders will face is navigating a space where he isn’t coaching his sons. It’s a big difference to coach a team when you don’t have your own flesh and blood on both sides that you can coach up a bit harder than you do other players. The whole ‘Prime Time’ stuff works when there’s production. If the Buffaloes turn into a trainwreck post-Shedeur and Hunter, ‘Prime Time’ could end early.  (Image via AtlantaFalcons.com)
By: Lucas Kochevar The Falcons haven’t had a strong defense since 2017. They’ve been a laughing stock, especially when it comes to rushing the passer, for years now. With a new defensive coordinator and several new starters, the Falcons are going to be a completely different unit. They lost one of their franchise staples with Grady Jarrett and his leadership, but if you look at his numbers on the field, it was time. They’ll try to fill in his leadership with new draft picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. Jalon Walker has been everything you could ask for in a draft pick already off the field. The command he holds at his age shows the type of leader he can and will be at the next level. Pearce Jr. has more questions surrounding him, but still can grow into the type of guy the Falcons wanted when they traded back into the first for him. On the field, both players will have to carry the load that many rookies don’t have to. The Falcons haven’t had a legitimate pass rush in ages and the rookies will get the opportunities to step up. The Falcons also brought in veteran pass rusher Leonard Floyd for a one year deal to bridge the year until they have more concrete plans. Floyd has been a steady producer for a number of teams, most recently the 49ers. They will also need Zach Harrison. Brandon Dorlus, Bralen Trice and Ruke Orhorhoro to step into big roles and grow up quickly. These guys are all young guns that will be heavily relied on to be, at the very least, playable. The Falcons secondary will also have a big role to play in the Falcons success as the cornerback opposite of A.J. Terrell was a disaster. Terrell bounced back after some tough seasons and Jessie Bates was terrific as usual. Justin Simmons departed after a year and now Jordan Filler, Xavier Watts and Alan Bowman will have to fill his role. Lastly, the nickel cornerback spot will be a big spot for the Falcons to improve at as it cannot be any worse than what they trotted out last season.  (Image via Jim Dedmon/USA TODAY Sports)
By: Lucas Kochevar The late surge from Bryce Young and the Panthers was a pleasant surprise for David Tepper. They looked like they were going to have an egg on their faces but the way Young played down the stretch was very encouraging to the Panthers faithful and they don’t have to worry about that position until the games start. The way forward for his continued success will depend heavily on the guys he’s throwing to and he has a really solid group. The guys they have for continuity's sake are Adam Thielen and Xavier Leggette. Thielen is providing steady production for the Panthers as a veteran presence. He only played ten games in 2024, but still put up 615 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s slowing down, but that’s where the Panthers will be relying on Legette to step up. The last pick of the 2024 first round saw some ups and downs but flashed in select moments for the Panthers. The biggest addition to their receiving room is their first round pick Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona. McMillan was one of the more interesting names throughout the draft process. There were some that had him as a top five talent and then some had him as a big time bust. The Arizona product finds himself heading to Carolina with a great opportunity to learn from Thielen. He’s able to really absorb from a guy that has a very similar style as him. Jimmy Horn Jr. and Jalen Coker are two other young names that could step up to provide support similar to McMillan. An intriguing guy that’s being added to the mix in Carolina is Hunter Renfrow. The former pro bowler is coming out of retirement after a year off to help the Panthers and jumpstart his career. He put up over 1,000 yards in 2021 and saw a strange fall off with a role change and got lost in the mix of the Vegas offense. Now, Renfrow looks to revive his career and could be an elite slot guy in the Panthers offense. These names are all crucial pieces to what the Panthers want to do on offense, but it all starts with Young. Every team runs as far as their quarterback will take them and the Panthers are the prime case of that with Young. There is a massive potential variance in what can happen with Young this season and the Panthers will be praying for him to continue his success.  (Image via John Babiak/Buc Nation)
By: Lucas Kochevar There aren’t many better stories in football than Baker Mayfield and what he’s done over the course of his career. From walk-on to Heisman winner to number one overall pick to almost out of the league to thriving starter. He’ll have a number of stories to tell his children and grandchildren whenever the time comes. For now, he’s looking to lead the Buccaneers to the promised land. He’s led the Buccaneers to two playoff appearances in the two seasons he’s been there and has thrown for over 4,000 yards in those seasons. Mayfield has revitalized his career in Tampa and is a top ten quarterback. He continued his success last season despite losing his playcaller, Dave Canales, and he’ll have to prove he can do it again after losing another playcaller in Liam Coen. It's a challenge he’s familiar with and he’ll have plenty of weapons to take on the new challenge under new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. He’s a 34-year old that earned the promotion internally from the Bucs. He was their passing game coordinator and already has a big connection with the passing attack. The Buccaneers have been fortunate to have weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for years. It was huge when the Bucs brought back Godwin, despite bigger offers elsewhere. I still think the Bucs are at their best outside of those two guys. Young tight end Cade Otton broke out in moments and then the Buccaneers doubled down on their weapons by picking Ohio State standout Emeka Egbuka in the first round. The Bucs offensive depth chart shows guys in the second and third string that could easily be starters around the league. Bringing up all these weapons leads back to the guy that’ll be distributing the ball to these guys, Baker Mayfield. In the end, it’s on Mayfield to evenly get these guys touches and win games. It’ll be a big year for a team that needs a deep run after a recent string of first round exits. Mayfield will be the head of a snake in the NFC that could turn some heads with big offensive numbers.  (Image via John Bazemore/AP Photo)
By: Lucas Kochevar The SEC is holding its media days next week and there will be a lot to look out for quote wise and more as everyone comes together in Atlanta. Since it’s the SEC, there will be a lot of eyes on the big time coaches in the conference like Kirby Smart, Steve Sarkisian and more. There are also a couple of quick headlines that people should be on the lookout for. One of the most SEC-type beefs happening right now involves Lane Kiffin, Hugh Freeze and golf. In the most Lane Kiffin way possible, he addressed Freeze and his lack of recruiting success and excessive golf habits on social media. Kiffin loves to stir the pot and it’s even funnier given that he’s at Freeze’s old school. Freeze has struggled to keep recruits and blamed NIL and other coaches for his problems. This little story a week before media days could provide for some fun subtle jabs at one another to the media. Any comments on the college football playoff will get picked up by major outlets, but two schools' statements on it could be the most interesting. Alabama and South Carolina were both left out of the playoff in favor of SMU. Alabama is always a school to watch since they’re a blue blood, but South Carolina is newer on the scene and has lofty expectations this season. It’ll be intriguing to see if they have anything to say about last year's selection committee, this year's selection process or any other future changes to the playoff system. This point plays on a recent LK Sports post about all the quarterbacks in the SEC, but media day is where starters set the tone for how they’re perceived by everyone, mainly the media and fans. Namely, Gunner Stockton is making his first appearance as Georgia’s starter. With an invite to media day, Stockton is all but named the starting quarterback at UGA this season. With an entire offseason under his belt, Stockton will have a lot of eyes on him and media day is the best spot to find that voice as the guy for the Bulldogs.  (Image via Ryan Sun/AP Photo)
By: Lucas Kochevar The Saints are one the NFL teams of all-time. Ever since Drew Brees and Sean Payton left, the Saints left a lot to be desired for a team that was consistently successful throughout the 2010s. They’ve been chasing a ghost since Brees left and have trotted out some real stinkers at quarterback. The list includes Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, Ian Book, Andy Dalton, Winston again, Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. What a list. The Saints biggest desperation move for a quarterback came before the 2023 season when they signed Carr to a massive four year deal after he was released from the Raiders. Carr played that whole season, but finished just outside the playoffs at 9-8. Last year, he was hurt and was ruled out for the season. When doubt came that he could play this season, he flat out decided to retire. Where does that leave New Orleans? It leaves them in a spot to roll out some horrible quarterbacks in an effort to position for Arch Manning or whoever becomes the number one overall pick in 2025. Their current quarterback depth chart is rookie Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Yikes. It’s not a group that inspires confidence. It’s definitely a future facing move to not chase after a veteran quarterback to at least have the illusion of being a competitive team in 2025. In terms of cap space, the team has been kicking the can down the road and this could be a year where they try to just eat it. With this quarterback room and first year head coach Kellen Moore, the Saints are seemingly punting on the year, unless they want some lightly used Kirk Cousins. If they don’t acquire any veterans before the season starts, the Saints will just look to develop young talent and pray Arch comes home to New Orleans. |
Lucas KochevarI love sports and I'm a local fan of the Falcons, Hawks, and Braves. You can find my quick thoughts and more on my twitter @lucaswkochevar |
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